Background:
- The Government is committed to strengthening public protection and ensuring the Probation Service has the tools and capacity it needs to keep communities safe, protect victims and change lives.
- This factsheet is for victim support stakeholders, providing information to help them understand the Progression Model and its implications for victims.
What is changing and when?
- The Sentencing Act 2026 introduces a new Progression model for standard determinate sentences, which creates a three-stage sentence: time in custody, a period of intensive supervision in the community, and a final licence stage. Under the Model, those currently eligible for automatic release at 40 or 50 percent of their sentence will instead be eligible for release at one-third, while those currently eligible at two-thirds will instead be eligible at 50 per cent.
- Offenders who behave badly in prison can be kept in for longer; we are doubling the maximum number of days that can be added for bad behaviour.
- On release, all offenders released will be subject to strict licence conditions and can be recalled to custody if they breach them. We will introduce a presumption that all prison leavers will be tagged on release as part of the intensive supervision period. We are also introducing new restrictive licence conditions, including restriction zones, which will be applied where necessary to manage risk.
- The release point change is being implemented in phases between September 2026 and June 2027, supported by updated guidance and operational changes across probation and prisons.
- New restrictive licence conditions will be implemented in September 2026, and a further factsheet will be issued in due course.
How were these changes developed?
- The reforms are based on recommendations from the Independent Sentencing Review.
- The changes are designed to:
- Make sure there is sufficient space in custody for the most dangerous offenders.
- Keep the public safe by focusing supervision where it matters most.
- Give probation staff better tools to manage offenders in the community.
What safeguards are in place to protect victims?
- Victims of serious sexual or violent offences where an offender receives a custodial sentence of 12 months or more are eligible for the Victim Contact Scheme (VCS).
- Victims who are eligible and opted into the VCS will continue to be able to make representations as to conditions they would like to see in the offender’s licence, such as exclusion zones and no-contact conditions.
- Once released, offenders will be managed under strict licence conditions in the community – including restriction zones for the most serious sexual and violent offenders where appropriate, and new powers which will allow the Probation Service to prohibit offenders from driving, attending public events, or entering pubs, clubs and bars.
- Where an offender released on licence breaches their licence conditions or if they cannot be safely managed in the community, the Probation Service has a full suite of options for managing this, including recall to prison.
- These arrangements apply to standard determinate sentences and do not include extended or indeterminate sentence cohorts; around 17,000 prisoners serving extended or indeterminate sentences are therefore not eligible for changes under the progression model.
What notification will victims receive about the changes?
- Victims registered with the VCS who may potentially be affected will be contacted by their Victim Liaison Officer in two stages to ensure they receive timely and accurate information.
- Initial notification from 15 June 2026: A standard letter will be issued to all potentially affected victims registered with the VCS, informing them that changes to release arrangements may affect the offenders release date in their case. This early communication is intended to ensure victims receive information directly and are aware that a review is taking place.
- Follow-up confirmation from mid-July 2026: Following sentence recalculation activity, targeted letters will be issued in phases up to the end of August 2026 to inform victims if their case has been affected. If there has been a change to the offender’s release date, these letters will set out any confirmed changes to both the release date and arrangements. Where there has been no change, victims will be informed accordingly.
Annex A: Detail on the Measures
Progression model
- Implementation of the new progression model – the most significant demand measure in the Sentencing Act – is planned to commence from September 2026.
- The new progression model is a key part of ensuring a sustainable prison system, maintaining sufficient capacity so courts can continue to detain dangerous offenders and keep the public safe.
- The new model means those who behave badly can be kept in custody for longer through the independent adjudications process. The current maximum number of added days per incident will be doubled, and days may be added up to sentence end.
- Under the model, for offenders serving standard determinate sentences with an automatic release of 40 or 50 percent, the Act states that the earliest release point will now be one third. For those serving standard determinate sentences with an automatic release point of two-thirds, their earliest possible release will now be 50 percent.
- Offenders found by the court to be dangerous – those on Extended Determinate Sentences – will not be eligible. They will not be released any earlier than they are now; they can only be considered for release after serving at least two thirds of their custodial term when deemed safe by the Parole Board and they will remain subject to Parole Board review. If not approved, they will be released automatically at the end of their sentence, with continued Probation Service oversight during the extended licence period.
- Likewise, offenders serving a Sentence for Offenders of Particular Concern, including for terrorist and certain national security related offences, will be out of scope of the progression model.
- Once released, offenders will be managed under strict licence conditions in the community. Offenders released on licence can be recalled if they breach their conditions or if they cannot be safely managed in the community.
- The Commencement Regulations brings into forces changes already approved by Parliament under the Sentencing Act, enabling implementation of the Progression model.